“The Match” is entering its fourth edition, and this may be the most exciting one since the original Phil Mickelson vs. Tiger Woods matchup of 2018.
This year, Mickelson will pair with Tom Brady, his partner from the second “The Match” competition, and take on one of the best young golfers in the game, Bryson DeChambeau. His sidekick will be Aaron Rodgers, which sets up a second battle of NFL MVPs in “The Match” history (Brady vs. Peyton Manning was the first).
Brady was voted Super Bowl MVP in 2021 while Rodgers was voted NFL regular-season MVP for 2020.
There will be plenty of action and intrigue surrounding these stars, and bettors will surely want to get in on it. There are some solid-looking bets that gamblers can take advantage of — and there will be more to come in as “The Match 4” draws nearer.
Here’s a complete betting guide to “The Match 4,” including odds, the best prop bets and a prediction for Phil Mickelson-Tom Brady vs. Bryson DeChambeau-Aaron Rodgers.
Betting odds for ‘The Match 4’
- Bryson DeChambeau-Aaron Rodgers (-182)
- Phil Mickelson-Tom Brady (+135)
Unsurprisingly, DeChambeau and Rodgers are favored to win “The Match 4.” DeChambeau has been the longest driver off the tee on the PGA Tour and the elevation changes at the Moonlight Basin course in Montana will allow him to use his strength to his advantage. Rodgers is considered to be a better golfer than Brady.
Still, Mickelson won “The Match” head-to-head against Tiger Woods as a heavy underdog, so Mickelson and Brady can’t be counted out, especially since DeChambeau’s driving accuracy and play around the green are both streaky.
Prop bets for ‘The Match 4’
Here’s a look at the best prop bets for “The Match 4.”
- Hole 1 winner (no tie): DeChambeau-Rodgers (-125) | Mickelson-Brady (-106)
- First to go up 1 up: DeChambeau-Rodgers (-137) | Mickelson-Brady (+105)
These two bets go hand-in-hand. If there’s a Hole 1 winner, that means that one team will be 1 up. As such, these are good to pair.
The first hole is a 463-yard par-4 that plays significantly downhill. While DeChambeau has the distance advantage, he could find himself in trouble if he misses with his drive. Mickelson can still hit the ball far — he averages 302.6 yards per drive compared to DeChambeau’s 322.4 — and while both are equally inaccurate and rank 186th (DeChambeau) and 189th (Mickelson) in driving accuracy, respectively, Mickelson is more likely to play it safe on the opening hole.
As such, Mickelson and Brady are the better bet to have an early lead. Trusting them at the -106 and +105 odds is appealing.
- Longest tee shot Hole 1: Bryson DeChambeau (-200) | Phil Mickelson (+140)
- Longest tee shot Hole 6: Bryson DeChambeau (-200) | Phil Mickelson (+140)
- Longest tee shot Hole 8: Bryson DeChambeau (-200) | Phil Mickelson (+140)
DeChambeau averages nearly 20 yards more per drive than Mickelson. Hole 1 is 463 yards, Hole 6 is 633 yards and Hole 8 is 500 yards. DeChambeau will blast his driver as hard as he can to try to shorten these holes.
Could Mickelson outdrive him once in this matchup? Sure, especially if DeChambeau has a mishit. But for the most part, betting against DeChambeau in a driving contest is foolhardy. Trust him as the favorite in these three scenarios.
- Leader after six holes (no tie): DeChambeau-Rodgers (-137) | Mickelson-Brady (+105)
As mentioned, the sixth hole is 633 yards and is the second-longest on the course. After that hole, DeChambeau and Rodgers should have a lead given that DeChambeau will have an easier time shortening the course than Mickelson. He’s worth trusting in this scenario, even if we are a bit worried about how he and Rodgers might fare on the first hole.
Phil Mickelson vs. Bryson DeChambeau
Mickelson has been up and down of late. He won the PGA Championship at the Kiawah Island course in May but followed that up by shooting 11 over and missing the cut at the U.S. Open. That said, Mickelson made the cut in four of his last five events entering this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.
DeChambeau has been a bit more consistent than Mickelson. He hasn’t missed a cut in his last 10 events and has finished in the top 10 in three of those tournaments. He’s a big-time driver, but his lack of accuracy off the tee and his up-and-down approach game gets him into trouble.
DeChambeau, 27, is seen as a better golfer than Mickelson, 51, at this point in their careers. DeChambeau ranks fifth overall in the Official World Golf Ranking while Mickelson checks in at 31st. That explains why DeChambeau’s odds to win The Open Championship (20-1) are far better than those of Mickelson (66-1).
DeChambeau has the head-to-head edge over Mickelson for “The Match,” and his case is helped by the fact that his amateur partner probably has the edge on his competition as well.
Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers
Brady might be the greatest quarterback of all time, and he and the Buccaneers were able to beat Rodgers and the Packers twice last year — the second time in the NFC championship game — en route to a seventh Super Bowl title for Brady.
But Rodgers has Brady beat in golf. His best handicap is 3.5 while Brady’s is roughly 8.1. Rodgers believes Brady is better than that, however.
“I don’t think Brady’s an 8. I’ve played with him, and he’s good,” Rodgers said in an interview with Golf Magazine. “I’ve played with all of those guys. Tony [Romo]’s a great player. Matt [Ryan] and I — I’ve beat him a couple of times, he’s beat me a couple of times.”
Rodgers has golfed competitively more than Brady, especially of late. Rodgers finished tied for ninth in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2020. He worked with Max Homa to earn the top-10 finish.
Brady has golfed with the likes of Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, but his only edge over Rodgers is that he has participated in “The Match” along with Mickelson before. Thus the edge here goes to the 37-year-old Rodgers over the 43-year-old Brady.
Prediction for ‘The Match 4’
It’s hard to pick against Brady and Mickelson. They are all-time winners in their respective sports and have experience playing together in “The Match.”
But this course plays to DeChambeau’s strength. It’s long, but it’s also 7,500 feet above sea level, so he will be able to shorten it a good bit. And Rodgers, as mentioned, is a solid golfer in his own right.
Mickelson has won this event as an underdog twice, so “The Match 4” should be competitive. But expect DeChambeau and Rodgers to come out on top.
Winners: Bryson DeChambeau & Aaron Rodgers