Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier odds, prediction, trends, prop bets for UFC 257

The UFC’s biggest star is back in action in the first pay-per-view event of the new year as Conor McGregor faces Dustin Poirier at UFC 257 on Fight Island in a rematch that has been six years in the making. 

The last time McGregor and Poirier met, the Irish superstar was an unranked fighter who was still on the rise while Poirier was aiming to realize his potential on the roster. McGregor formally announced his arrival with a stunning first-round knockout, and the MMA world hasn’t been the same since. 

MORE: UFC 257 date, start time, card, PPV price, odds vs. Dustin Poirier

While McGregor has shaken up the world as the first UFC fighter to hold world titles in two different weight classes simultaneously and broken records as the biggest start the sport has ever seen, Poirier has put in a workmanlike effort to get back into position to challenge for a world title. 

The version of themselves that they will see across the Octagon on Saturday night will be vastly different than the one they met six years ago. But will the outcome be the same, or will Poirier get his long-awaited redemption? 

UFC 257 odds for McGregor vs. Poirier

  • Conor McGregor: -300
  • Dustin Poirier: +240

Odds via BetMGM

In the six and a half years that have passed since their first meeting, McGregor has amassed a record of 6-2 with five of his six victories coming by way of knockout. Outside of being submitted by the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov, McGregor’s only other loss during this span was against Nate Diaz two weight classes above his normal fighting weight. He would go on to avenge that loss.

As for Poirier, he has gone 10-2 with 1 No Contest since the McGregor fight. He, too, suffered a submission loss to Nurmagomedov but also lost to Michael Johnson by knockout back in 2016. Some may be surprised to find that he has defeated four former champions during his recent run with victories over former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway and stoppage victories against former lightweight champions Justin Gaethje, Anthony Pettis and Eddie Alvarez. 

But what does this mean for the rematch?

McGregor still packs dynamite in his left hand but continues to round out his striking and takedown defense. He ran roughshod over Donald Cerrone last January, but it’s hard to figure out what that victory means considering that Cerrone has been on a downswing lately. 

Poirier went to war with Dan Hooker last June in a Fight of the Year candidate that showed his tremendous resolve, improved striking and conditioning. He’s the higher ranked fighter due to his impressive resume, but oddsmakers installed McGregor as a pretty hefty favorite (-240) when the fight was announced. And those odds continue to widen as he now sits as a -300 favorite via BetMGM. Meanwhile, Poirier started off as a 2-1 underdog at +200, and that line has stretched to +240.

This fight is extremely tricky to figure out. Poirier has demonstrated tremendous grappling and has taken out some lethal competition with his much-improved striking. The problem is that he still gets hit far more often than he should, as seen in his brawl with Dan Hooker. He has shown the ability to stay calm in the face of the fire and gather himself when he’s in trouble. 

As for McGregor, the striking remains ferocious, and his killer instinct is profound. But the degree of difficulty and activity doesn’t quite measure up to Poirier’s. As much as Diaz has proven to be a fan favorite, he doesn’t come close to what Gaethje and Holloway have accomplished.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that if McGregor is going to get the finish, it would be within the first two rounds. He has never secured a knockout after the second round. Because of this, one would have to think that Poirier plans to weather the early storm and see what McGregor has in the later rounds. 

Currently, the fight going over 2.5 rounds is at +150. And it might be the best line for a bettor who is thinking of getting a boost in value by placing a wager on Poirier. 

But if you are a believer in Mystic Mac, taking McGregor -300 would make pairing it with a prop bet a necessity to find value. In this case, the fight ending in under 1.5 rounds is a +105. 

McGregor shouldn’t be such a big favorite considering his inactivity. Needing to place a $300 bet to earn a $100 profit just feels too steep of a price to pay, regardless of how much you’d like to think McGregor is going to win. 

Poirier gives you much more value. His path to victory is unlikely to be a knockout early, as McGregor has a formidable chin. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel if Poirier takes him into the fourth or fifth round, where McGregor is subject to fatigue. As demonstrated in his fights against Diaz, McGregor is vulnerable to fatigue, and it gives Poirier an opening to get the fight to the canvas. 

MORE: Save over 30% when you buy UFC 257 and an ESPN+ Annual Plan for only $89.98

Poirier will have to bank on McGregor’s conditioning being in question to pick up the upset. He’s more than talented enough in the striking and grappling departments to do so. He also is aware of McGregor’s power, and that should prevent him from foolishly rushing in and fighting as he did against Hooker. 

If this were an even-money fight, it would be easier to suggest McGregor given his precision striking and ability to end the bout in a flash. However, Poirier has something to prove, and his being set up as such a significant underdog allows a potential bettor the opportunity to earn an extra few dollars without a big investment. 

Don’t bet the house on Poirier, but feel confident on putting down a solid wager that could yield a substantial profit.

McGregor vs. Poirier prediction

Picks: Dustin Poirier (+240) and Over 2.5 rounds (+150)

Odds: +240 and +150

McGregor vs. Poirier odds

Total number or rounds: over/under

  • Over 1.5: -125
  • Under 1.5: +105

Total number or rounds: over/under

  • Over 2.5: +150
  • Under 2.5: -185

Total number or rounds: over/under

  • Over 3.5: +225
  • Under 3.5: -275

Will the fight go the distance?

Method of victory

  • McGregor by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission: -200
  • McGregor by Decision: +700
  • Tie: +5000
  • Poirier by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission: +475
  • Poirier by Decision: +600

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